Why is the 1.5-degree Celsius target critical?

Context

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its two recent reports titled “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027” and “State of Global Climate 2022” has predicted that the annual mean global surface temperature will breach the 1.5°C mark by 2027.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations established in 1950 as an intergovernmental body. The UN Economic and Social Council is the parent organization of the WMO. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has 193 Member States and 6 Member Territories. The World Meteorological Congress is the supreme body of the WMO. It is headed by its Secretary-General. The reports published by the World Meteorological Organisation are annual reports on the status of the World Climate and Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. India has been a member of the WMO since 1950. India’s permanent representative to the organization is the head

What is the 1.5°C target?

The 1.5 °C target was established as a part of the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to undertake collaborative climate actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming. One of the main goals of the Paris Agreement was to limit global warming to well below 2° C and preferably limit it to 1.5° C, compared to pre-industrial levels. The 1.5 °C target mainly aims to limit global warming to said level by 2100, to prevent the planet from slipping into further climate crises. The 1.5 °C target was also endorsed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a global target in 2018 and has been pursued in most of the climate dialogues.

Significance of the 1.5°C target

The IPCC had come up with a special report on the impact of global warming if the global temperature breaches the 1.5°C baseline in 2018. The report predicted that anthropogenic activities would result in warming reaching 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. Various reports suggest that the rise in the temperature over the 2°C level would result in irreversible changes in the environment coupled with more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, heavy precipitation, increase in the mean sea level which ultimately lead to the destruction of ecosystems. According to the IPCC, climate-related risks are higher for global warming at 1.5°C than at present, but lower than at 2°C. Furthermore, the rise in the average temperature does not imply that the rate of warming is uniform across the globe. For example, warming is taking place at a greater rate than the global average in the Arctic region. The existing regional discrepancies and various vulnerability factors of the regions make it crucial to undertake immediate climate actions in order to limit the average warming to under the 1.5°C target.

Global Warming Likely to Breach 1.5°C

According to the WMO, there is a more than 50% chance that global temperatures would surpass the 1.5°C mark within the next five years. WMO has also highlighted that insufficient progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of El Niño are the key reasons for the increase in global temperatures. Traditionally, developed countries have been mainly responsible for a large chunk of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus are accorded additional responsibilities to implement climate actions. However, countries like the U.S., Australia, Russia, Japan and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges. The recent Climate Performance Indices have also pointed out that even countries such as China, Iran and Saudi Arabia have fared poorly in terms of climate performance. Further, the COVID pandemic and the Ukraine conflict have also played their role in aggravating the socio-economic crisis which has forced countries across to undertake efforts to build-back their economies without due focus on sustainability.

Possible impacts of current rate of global warming

The cryosphere is shrinking at a rapid rate as the ice caps, glaciers and permafrost are melting at an alarming rate. This also results in an increase in the global mean sea level. Climate change has induced crop failure and also increased the risks of agricultural pest attacks and diseases. The rapid rate of warming has also exacerbated food insecurity causing deaths and displacements. Countries such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Yemen and Somalia are witnessing acute food shortages. Additionally, rising temperatures have led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, cyclones, etc. As per the data available with the WMO, extreme weather events have resulted in the deaths of over two million people and incurred $4.3 trillion in economic damages in the last 50 years. In 2020-2021, close to about 22,608 disaster deaths were recorded worldwide. Recent floods in Pakistan impacted major croplands and displaced over 80 lakh people within the country. Countries in the Horn of Africa have been experiencing extreme drought conditions since 2020. Countries in the western parts are witnessing severe floods and heavy rainfall. People in Syria and Yemen have also been displaced on account of severe floods, storms, and heavy snowfall. Both aquatic as well as terrestrial ecosystems have been significantly impacted due to the changes in climate patterns. The increase in temperature above 1.5°C poses a lethal threat to the coral reefs. The population of migratory species has also declined significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Impact of global warming on India

India has been increasingly facing the brunt of climate change. Various instances of heatwaves in India in 2022 led to a decline in crop yield. Further, in 2022, India experienced extreme weather events for 80% of the days. February 2023 was seen to be the hottest month since 1901. There have been significant changes in the rainfall patterns and Indian monsoons which has caused wildfires and acute food shortages.

Various efforts were undertaken by India to mitigate climate change

India was ranked eighth and referred to as a “high-performer” in the recent Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2023. India has played an active role in attempting to balance both the development needs along with ongoing climate actions. Policymakers have come up with initiatives such as the Green Hydrogen Mission and the introduction of green bonds. Even in the international arena, India has been playing an active role by introducing programmes such as International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).

Nut graf: The WMO, through its recent report, has cautioned that the annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years between 2023 to 2027. This has highlighted the need for bringing about a balance in the development needs with ongoing climate action both at the domestic as well as international levels.